FOREWORD 17

1 ENERGY FUNDAMENTALS 23 buch-geschlossen-weisser-abdeckung_318-49854

1.1 What is energy? 23

1.1.1 First of all energy is a physics concept 24

1.1.2 Work is hard but necessary to growth 29

1.1.3 But energy is also policy 31

1.2 Measuring energy 33

1.3 Power 35

1.4 Primary and final energy 36

1.4.1 Heating and cooling 38

1.4.2 Energies are not all the same 39

2 FUNDAMENTAL DATA 43

2.1 Data and energy scenarios 43

2.1.1 Data sources for evaluating the world of energy 43

2.1.2 Models and forecasting 45

2.1.3 The errors of the Club of Rome 49

2.2 Indicators and analysis 51

2.2.1 Energy per capita 52

2.2.2 Energy intensity 53

2.2.3 Carbon intensity 56

2.3 Primary energy balances 58

2.3.1 Historical trends in energy demand 58

2.3.2 Recent trends in world energy demand 60

2.3.3 Recent trends in EU energy demand 66

2.4 Recent trends in world electricity demand 68

2.4.1 World electricity generation 68

2.4.2 EU electricity generation 69

2.5 Final energy demand 71

3 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY 73

3.1 The new faith 73

3.2 Fundamentals of sustainable development 75

3.2.1 The UN process for sustainable development 75

3.2.2 Sustainable development is not a science 78

3.2.3 The precautionary principle 79

3.2.4 The internalisation of external costs and benefits 82

3.2.5 Kuznets’s theory 87

3.2.6 Strategies, policies, and measures for environmental protection 89

3.3 Energy pollutants 92

3.3.1 Air pollution control 93

3.3.2 Offshore oil and gas protection 96

3.3.3 Waste and energy 99

3.4 Energy poverty 101

3.4.1 Rich and poor, poles apart in energy 103

3.4.2 Energy poverty, a worrying reality 107

3.4.3 Maslow’s theory and energy 114

3.4.4 Monitoring progress 116

3.4.5 Let there be light 117

3.4.6 How to finance the electrification of Sub-Saharan Africa? 120

3.4.7 Fuel poverty in the EU 122

3.5 Climate change 123

3.5.1 The international process 123

3.5.2 EU policy and ETS 136

3.5.3 Technology to reduce CO2 emissions 139

3.5.4 CCS 145

3.5.5 CO2 emission trends 150

3.5.6 Are anthropic emissions really changing the climate? 155

3.5.7 Climate change policy, a convergence of religion, anti-market and business? 165

4 OIL 169

4.1 King Oil 171

4.1.1 Global oil consumption and production 171

4.1.2 EU oil consumption and production 174

4.2 Resources 179

4.2.1 Difference between resources and reserves 179

4.2.2 Types of oil resources 182

4.3 Oil reserves 184

4.3.1 Total oil reserves 184

4.3.2 The geographical distribution of oil reserves 187

4.3.3 The end of “the end of oil” 189

4.3.4 The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 194

4.3.5 The race to the Arctic oil 200

4.4 Actors in the oil sector 203

4.4.1 Risky business, skilled technology 203

4.4.2 Production contracts 205

4.5 The technology revolution 206

4.5.1 Prospection 208

4.5.2 Drilling 210

4.5.3 Recovery rate improvement 212

4.5.4 Offshore developments 213

4.6 Refining 213

4.6.1 A chemical plant 214

4.6.2 Refining industry challenges 216

4.6.3 The petrochemical industry 220

5 THE OIL MARKET 227

5.1 Ricardo’s theory 228

5.2 Oil trading 231

5.2.1 The price of crude oil 234

5.2.2 The price of oil products 237

5.3 OPEC 238

5.3.1 Origin and functions 239

5.3.2 Challenges ahead 244

5.4 The International Energy Agency 247

5.4.1 Origin and functions 248

5.4.2 The success of Strategic Oil Stocks 249

5.5 Crude oil price trends 251

5.5.1 The last 25 years 253

5.5.2 The Iraq interlude 257

5.5.3 The oil bubble bursts 259

5.6 The curse of oil 261

5.6.1 Oil can be a plague 261

5.6.2 The urgent need for good governance 263

5.7 Coal liquefaction, the oil price cap 264

5.8 The end of the oil quarantine 270

6 NATURAL GAS 271

6.1 What is natural gas? 272

6.1.1 A recent energy source 272

6.1.2 The simpler hydrocarbon 274

6.2 Gas reserves, production and consumption 279

6.2.1 Gas reserves 279

6.2.2 Mozambique, an example of new gas Eldorado 282

6.2.3 Gas in the Mediterranean Sea 284

6.2.4 Gas consumption 286

6.3 Why is gas so attractive? 288

6.3.1 The uses of natural gas 288

6.4 Natural gas and electricity generation 289

6.4.1 Gas to produce diesel 292

6.4.2 There will be no gas cartel 293

6.4.3 Environmental advantages 296

6.4.4 A cheap fuel 297

6.5 Gas transport: its problem 299

6.5.1 Pipeline transportation and its conditions 300

6.5.2 LNG-carrier transportation 303

6.5.3 Principles of LNG 304

6.5.4 Exports and imports of LNG 306

6.5.5 USA as a LNG exporter 311

6.6 The gas market 313

6.6.1 Three geographical gas markets 313

6.6.2 .Gas contracts 316

6.6.3 Competitiveness thanks to LNG 319

7 SHALE GAS AND SHALE OIL 325

7.1 The geology of shale gas and shale oil 326

7.2 Fracking techniques 330

7.2.1 What environmental impact? 334

7.3 What is happening outside the USA? 341

7.3.1 Shale gas in the EU 345

7.3.2 Regulations in the EU 351

7.4 Is the low oil price killing the shale gas and shale oil business? 354

8 UNAVOIDABLE COAL 357

8.1 A dazzling past 357

8.2 Coal reserves and mining 359

8.2.1 Coal or solid fuels? 359

8.2.2 Coal reserves and production 362

8.2.3 EU coal reserves and the German coal case 363

8.2.4 Toward a closing of the EU coalmining industry? 367

8.2.5 Coal mining 369

8.3 The coal market 372

8.3.1 Coal production and consumption 372

8.3.2 Coal, the fuel for electricity generation 374

8.3.3 Coal exports and market price 383

8.4 Coal and pollution 386

8.4.1 Coal under pressure 390

9 NUCLEAR, THE SCIENTIFIC ENERGY SOURCE 397

9.1 EU development of nuclear energy: Euratom 398

9.1.1 Euratom, a successful treaty 399

9.1.2 The Euratom Supply Agency 401

9.1.3 Euratom safeguards 403

9.1.4 The dilemma of nuclear energy in the EU 404

9.2 Nuclear technology 405

9.2.1 The nuclear cycle 405

9.2.2 The technology of nuclear power plants 408

9.3 Nuclear fears 414

9.3.1 A divided public opinion 414

9.3.2 Chernobyl and Fukushima 415

9.3.3 The fear of nuclear radiation and waste 419

9.3.4 The EU answer to the Fukushima accident 423

9.4 Nuclear, a resilient reality 424

9.4.1 Nuclear energy today 424

9.4.2 The EU situation 427

9.4.3 A reality in worldwide development 436

9.4.4 Rosatom, the undisputed nuclear leader 441

9.4.5 The future of nuclear energy 445

9.5 Nuclear fusion 448

10 ELECTRICITY 451

10.1 Electricity, an essential energy 452

10.2 Historical development 453

10.3 Electricity generation 455

10.3.1 Which fuel mix? 456

10.3.2 Responding to intermittent electricity generation with thermal power plants 462

10.3.3 The importance of hydroelectricity 464

10.3.4 Africa, a special case 469

10.4 Transport and distribution, and smart grid technology 475

10.4.1 Coping with intermittent electricity generation 476

10.4.2 Electricity storage 479

10.4.3 Smart metering 482

10.4.4 Who is innovating? 486

10.5 The electricity price 489

10.5.1 Towards a nationalised power industry? 494

11 RENEWABLE ENERGIES 499

11.1 The much-loved growing renewable energies 499

11.2 EU legislation in favour of renewable energies 502

11.2.1 Biomass 508

11.2.2 Progress, but also setbacks 511

11.2.3 The German EnergieWende 517

11.2.4 The Desertec Romance comes to an end 528

11.3 The subsidies 532

11.4 Urban waste 538

11.5 Biofuels 543

11.5.1 Biofuels, a subsidised reality 546

11.5.2 The second generation or advanced biofuels 549

11.6 Hydrogen 551

11.6.1 Fuel cells 553

11.6.2 Power-to-gas 555

12 ENERGY EFFICIENCY 557

12.1 The best slogan for energy policy 558

12.1.1 An old concept 562

12.2 Energy “Efficiency” or Energy “Saving” policies? 563

12.2.1 Barriers to energy efficiency 565

12.2.2 Tangible progress in energy efficiency 566

12.3 Smart heating, the key to energy efficiency 568

12.3.1 Buildings and energy efficiency 575

12.3.2 Cogeneration 578

12.3.3 District heating 581

12.3.4 Primary Energy Conversion Factor 585

12.4 Ecodesign and labelling 586

12.5 The rebound effect, a limitation to energy saving 589

13 ANNEXES 592

13.1 Conversion factors 592

13.2 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 596

INDEX 599

REFERENCES 613

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